Following on from his previous piece on the vast gap in voter turnout, Nicholas Harrington has analysed Super Tuesday – and it’s not good.
The other day I discussed the vast differences in voter turnout between the Republicans and the Democrats. Using this figure, I’ve taken the liberty of running the numbers on Super Tuesday’s turnout in order to see how many Republicans turned up at the polls, compared to Democrats, in the twelve states that were on offer.
And it’s not good.
The last time I wrote about these statistics, the Republicans had about a 14 percent advantage in voter turnout over the Democrats. Looking at the figures from Super Tuesday and combining them with the four primaries that have already taken place, the Republicans actually have around 47 percent more voters turning out to cast ballots.
That makes a 19 percent turnout margin overall.
40.4 percent of the popular vote for the Democrats, and 59.5 percent of the popular vote for Republicans. If this were to play out, it would result in an Obama-2008-style landslide victory.
Now, before everyone absolutely loses their “whatever” (Trump joke; sorry), I’ll remind you that Presidential elections in the United Sates proceed according to what is known as the Electoral College system.
Basically, this means you don’t win by having the most votes overall, you win because you won the greatest number of states. Well, actually that’s not even true (*sigh*). Each state has a certain number of Electoral College votes that are up for grabs (winner takes all). That number is determined by the population of the state (kinda sorta but not always). California, Texas, Florida are big prizes. Vermont, not so much…
This means that a win by one vote in a state is the same as a lead of 2,000,000 votes. You still get the same number of Electoral College votes. The magic number is 270 out of 538. Texas has 38.
Anyway looking at the figures, and the graph, its pretty clear that something quite significant is going on. If the Democrats don’t figure out a way to either encourage more Democrats and Independents to turn out and vote in November, or somehow discourage Republicans from showing up – it’s looking pretty good for a Trump inauguration (probably), or a Republican in the White House (almost certainly) come the 20th of January, 2017.
See you at the next stop.