Nicholas Harrington

How Trump can still win the election

Approx Reading Time-8It looks like the fat lady is ready to belt one out but as the hours wind down, a new poll suggests Donald Trump may still win the election.

 


We are but a few hours away from witnessing the hoofed beast of political motion trot in to shit on the floor of congress. Deleted emails, genitalia, human sacrifice (no, really), it’s fair to assume that this election will stick long in the mind. There are logical people, like my partner, who believe that Trump is the devil incarnate (and some other words not fit to print) and that Hillary will do us all a favour, and not be Trump.

Ding dong, the tan is dead.

However, don’t be so sure of the fat lady warbling at the door of Trump Towers, for an actual proper analysis of the latest Fox News poll (which evenly surveyed people on both sides), tells a different story. It may not be curtains just yet.

Our chief political analyst has the skinny on the numbers, and perhaps what we can expect when the votes are tallied.

Below is a trend-line average of the USC/LA Times tracking poll. In 2012, the LA Times tracking poll was called the RAND tracking poll and was one of the most accurate polls in the final analysis. If this form of analysis can be said to be reliable, the forecast is for a 2% advantage in the popular vote for Donald Trump. Bear in mind that the presidential election is decided by Electoral College (not popular vote).

latimes-poll-trend-line

So how can Trump still win the 2016 election?

Please do not dismiss the video’s analysis out of hand simply because I have used the Fox News poll. I am well aware of the implicit bias implicit of conservative polling. My method, however, is to engage the analysis prior to the “skewing” and methodological bias; by simply looking at the internal raw data of the “cross-tabs”. I then make general observations about these data points. It’s worth noting that the data points contained here are broadly comparable to those embedded within:

This poll: NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey

This poll: The Economist/YouGov

And, this poll: McClatchy-Marist Poll

The Fox News poll was used simply because it asked a variety of questions from which I could infer “enthusiasm” and consequently prospective voter turnout.

 

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