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According to a new paper, the point when our climate will forever be ruined is only a handful of decades away. Great.
According to a new analysis by an Australian think-tank, the crossover point for climate change will be here by 2050, writing that the “extremely serious outcomes” have been ignored because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”
The Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration describes our current climate change status as dire, writing that “planetary and human systems reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”
According to the paper, our current trajectory will see a rise of 3 degrees Celsius. This would accelerate the collapse of key ecosystems “including coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and in the Arctic.”
The results of that would be devastating. One billion people would have to relocate from their now unliveable location, and two billion would face scarcity of water supplies. Agriculture would collapse in the sub-tropics, and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide.
“Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end,” the report notes.
The paper is authored by the think-tank’s research director David Spratt and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association.
Spratt and Dunlop’s 2050 scenario illustrates how inaction will see us stumble blindly into a world changed, and an end met.
“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said Spratt. “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilisation of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”